Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
